A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
